Fed Speech Today - policy signals from midly hawkish to neutral

FEDERAL RESERVE USINFLATION

Cook prepared to hike if disinflation does not arrive; AI adds third price shock

Policy: Hold steady is baseline; prepared to raise rates if disinflation stalls
Inflation: PCE 3.8%, core PCE 3.3%, risks tilted to upside after five years above target
Framework: AI investment is third price shock; chips, electricity, water prices rising
Labour: Broadly stable but downside risks elevated; AI job loss could precede gains
Outlook: Disinflation expected to resume; embedding into wage-price setting is key risk

Logan flags Hormuz oil supply hit, Treasury market resilience, fertility decline

Framework: No rate or inflation signals, structural and market plumbing focus only
Outlook: Hormuz closure cut global oil supply ~10%; US output response capped near 250 kbd by 2026
Policy: Argues FOMC should centrally clear open market operations
Framework: Demographic decline may shift neutral rate estimates over decades
Framework: Distinguish liquidity tools from monetary accommodation in future stress

Jefferson sees inflation risks up, labour risks down, has not prejudged next meeting

Policy: Current 3.50-3.75% stance well positioned to respond either way
Inflation: Risks tilted to upside; expects decline as tariff and energy effects wane
Labour: Broadly stable with risks skewed to downside
Outlook: Watching whether energy prices weigh on consumer spending
Framework: No prejudgement of next meeting; data-dependent two-sided stance